A Look at 10 Worrisome Issues For 2009 - Part II

6. O-Line Depth

The Depth problems seem to be at left tackle and at center. I figure either McQuistan or Free can play right tackle if Colombo goes down. Either Holland or Kosier can play either guard spot if the starter goes down. The team seems comfortable with Corey Procter backing up Andre Gurode, although I can't say that I share that sentiment.

SOLUTION: The team needs to figure out a replacement for Flozell Adams and should consider drafting a Left Tackle in the first round of 2010. I think the team can manage if only one of the offensive tackles gets injured. Leonard Davis could also move to offensive tackle and they could just put Holland and Kosier at the starting guard positions. Hopefully the draft picks under the legendary Hudson Houck will start to pay off.


7. Tony Romo's turnovers

Probably the issue that worries me the most. If Romo plays the entire year and limits his turnovers, this is a team that can go very far. If they continue to see him turn the ball over then they will likely see problems come December.

SOLUTION: The offense could be more balanced and the passing attack could be more diversified. More attacking of defenses by running the ball so they can limit Romo's passing attempts and less 'stubborn gameplans' where Garrett and company practically insist that they attack the opposing defense one way and do not stray from that gameplan until the 4th quarter no matter how bad it is getting killed. Use more of the offensive personnel, particularly in the passing game. Teams will be focusing on Witten and probably later on with Roy Williams, so guys like Crayton, Sam Hurd and Martellus Bennett should have greater opportunities to make big plays. If the turnovers do not cease, then the team needs to hopefully develop Stephen McGee into a possible threat to take over the starting QB spot. No player in the NFL likes competition for their job, but NFL QB's seem to really hate it and usually rise to the occasion in order to keep their job.

8. The Inside Linebackers

Bradie James has developed into a very good Inside Linebacker, but does have some issues with pass coverage. Early in 2008 the ILB's struggled as teams would run to the outside and James was a tad slow getting their and Zach Thomas couldn't take on the blockers. This problem seemed to cease once Wade took over the defense and Brooking is a bit more physical of a player than Zach Thomas. The real issues come with the backups as the team lost Kevin Burnett to free agency, a guy that played very well for them in '08 and he's being replaced by rookie 3rd round pick Jason Williams. That likely leaves more playing time to Bobby Carpenter who is trying to shed the 'bust' label.

SOLUTION: There are no real solutions for this season. Just hope that Carpenter stays on the field for passing situations and that Williams develops quicker than expected.


9. The December Slump

We all know what this is about and quite frankly we're sick of hearing about it.

SOLUTION: I think part of the problem resides in the Thanksgiving game. Don't have any fact backing this up, but it seems like after the Thanksgiving game the wind gets taken out of their sails. But we can't solve that problem.

I think this team has the makeup for a team that can be effective come December instead of fizzle. We have a defense that is not only at least pretty good and has the potential to be great, but is good at sacking the QB. We have 3 quality tailbacks. We have two tight ends to help move the ball thru the air effectively and safely. We have an excellent placekicker and should be very good on special teams coverage and getting an advantage on field position. The key comes back to the QB's turnovers, an O-Coordinator who won't be stubborn with the playcalling, actually using our tailbacks, and playing more disciplined football.


10. Backup Nose Tackle

Jay Ratliff is one of the best in the business and at certain points of the season I thought he was better at nose tackle than Ware was at outside linebacker. He was that great. Unfortunately he is human and cannot play every down. The backups? Tim Anderson and Junior Siavii. Yipes.

SOLUTION: You may see Marcus Spears get some time at backup NT and look out for Stephen Bowen given out depth at defensive end. The good thing about Wade's scheme is that you don't need terrific player after terrific player on the D-Line to be effective. Get some good solid run stoppers to start and then give them a breather with guys who can get to the QB on passing downs and you can be in good shape as long as they are keeping blockers away from the linebackers and they are fresh. To Wade's credit, he's had incredible success over the years with nose tackles (Ted Washington, Travis Hall, Jammal Williams, Ratliff), so if he likes Siavii then there should be some confidence in that player.




YAKUZA

HEY! You're Supposed To Care About This...

...except we don't.

The 'big news' coming out is that Tony Romo has broken up with Jessica Simpson. This now passes for news mainly because sports media outlets like BSP...err, I mean ESPN tell you this is news.

Except it really isn't.

Just like anybody believing that it was news that Dallas lost to the Eagles back in '07 in a close game at Texas Stadium and Simpson was in the stands. Little was mentioned that Romo hurt his hand in that game and it hurt his throwing ability or that Jason Garrett once again forgot about the running game. Nope, Jessica Simpson was at the game and according to screwy, irrational logic...she's a curse.

If I didn't know any better, I would've thought Simpson would have fired a gun at Romo like Memo did at Roy Hobbs in 'The Natural.'

Fortunately, I do know better than that.

What's funny (and sad at the same time) is that mums the word from the critics who screamed with joy that Simpson was a curse as if they are to use that logic, that would mean that Romo is going to have a career year now that Simpson is gone.

Of course, nobody believes that will happen just because he broke up with Simpson.

No, the logical and rational people believe that Romo's regression was due to him being careless with the ball, a hand injury, some weaker O-Line play and some questionable playcalling. And those same logical and rational people will believe that *if* Romo's plays improves, it will be due to hard work, protecting the ball better, better offensive chemistry and better playcalling.

For Simpson, somebody most of us don't even know, she seems like a good person. She seemed like a supportive girlfriend and was somehow given a 'gold digger' label despite her having far more money than Romo. I keep hearing how Romo needs to find a normal girl, but we saw how well that worked for the late Steve McNair. And who knows if Romo will go back to a more simpler lifestyle or if he'll continue to party with celebrities in Hollywood.

Either way, the thing about this is that true football fans really don't care about this. Those who were critics of the relationship and called it a 'curse' know that they were just being silly and the rest didn't think it mattered to begin with. So where does that put the media, particularly ESPN at?

My guess is that they are not true football fans.






YAKUZA

A Look at 10 Worrisome Issues For 2009 - Part I

1. Placeholder

I will say this for the millionth time, but I am worried about the placeholder situation. There's no doubt in my mind that one of the big reasons why the field goal kicking was so poor during the Parcells era was due to the poor placeholding with Drew Henson and Tony Romo. In '03 when Billy Cundiff had a pretty good year field goal kicking, Toby Gowin was doing the placeholding duties and he was one of the best placeholders in the league. Brad Johnson was excellent as a placeholder, but obviously the team needed to get a better backup QB and traded for Jon Kitna.

SOLUTION: For '09 they will likely need Kitna to take over the placeholding duties. If that does not work as well as Johnson did it could be very harmful because now we have 3 kickers on the roster that only do one particular duty with Folk kicking field goals, Buehler doing kickoffs only and McBriar doing punts. I think if this does not work, the Cowboys seriously need to consider McBriar's future with the team since all he does is punt. Folk's ability to kick field goals accurately is too hard to pass up on and bringing in a different kicker would do no good if the placeholding is the problem. Letting go a good backup QB because he can't placehold is a bit silly and wasteful. So in my mind, McBriar's future in Dallas should be determined by Kitna's placeholding.

2. Jason Garrett's ability to use the entire offensive personnel

Last year was a disappointing season for Garrett especially from how he used the rest of the personnel. The passing game seemed to revolve around Witten and Owens and you could debate that they looked more for Witten than Owens. And when teams could contain Witten on the deep pass and key on Owens, the passing game suffered badly. Garrett actually looked worse as Tashard Choice and Felix Jones played well. Jones was often neglected and came right in and made big plays instantaneously. I could see if you were worried about a rookie's blocking, but Jones did a sufficient job there as well. But when Choice was forced to start due to injuries and then looked downright superb, it drew criticism in my eyes that Garrett did a poor job on getting the entire offensive personnel.

The Cowboys have the talent to frustrate defenses and cause mismatches like the Patriots have done for the past few years. The Cowboys are far more talented at tight end and running back than the Patriots are and while they have nowhere near the talent of Moss and Welker at wide receiver, they probably have more talent at WR than the Pats had during the Deion Branch and David Patten years.

SOLUTION: Learn from last season. If a player like Manuel Johnson shows some promise in practice and you're not quite sure how he'll do in a game, get him some playing time and see how he does. If he does poorly, then he's not ready, but don't assume he's not ready. And get Felix Jones more ready to catch passes, either lining up as a receiver or out of the backfield. This will allow room for Choice and Barber to make plays and possibly create some mismatches. Experiment this with Martellus Bennett as well. Garrett shouldn't have many excuses anymore. He has no Terrell Owens to worry about and if he can't get the job done, it's time to look for a different O-Coordinator.


3. Consistency in the Pass Rush

Even though Dallas led the league in sacks last year, the pass rush sometimes suffered from inconsistency. As Dallas got on a roll with sacking the QB late in the season, they couldn't do much against the Eagles in the last week of the season.

SOLUTION: The solution may already be in place with Wade running the defense now. Part of the problem with Brian Stewart's blitzes is that they almost always came up the middle and Bradie James seemed to hit his stride by mixing up the blitzes and got wide open a lot with blitzes towards the edge instead of right up the gut. Teams will focus heavily on DeMarcus Ware after he almost broke the single season sacks record. GOOD! Use that to your advantage. Move Ware around and let the defense dictate what the offense instead of the other way around. That's why Lawrence Taylor was such a force on defense, he forced opposing offenses to react to where he was (and he also scared the crap out of opposing O-Linemen, tailbacks and QB's).

4. The Wide Receivers

Roy Williams has never lived up to his potential, although he's played in Detroit all but a few games last season. Patrick Crayton doesn't seem to get open much anymore and Miles Austin is still unproven. Isaiah Stanback seems like a failed experiment and will probably land with the Dolphins sometime down the road.

SOLUTION: Use the strength at tailback and tight end to its fullest. Not only can we throw to Felix, Bennett and Witten, but we can use these guys to help make things easier for the Wide Receivers. Particularly, run the ball more and set up big plays with play action and use different 2-TE formations to create mismatches.

5. The Safeties

Neither Dallas starting safety (Hamlin and Sensabaugh) are considered cover specialists. Hamlin probably gets too much criticism for my tastes and he can play very well, but he has about 2-3 games a year where he looks bad both in coverage and tackling and it usually plays a big part in costing Dallas the game.

SOLUTION: I get the feeling if Parcells was coaching this team you would see him put an intense effort in motivating Hamlin knowing that if Hamlin has a good year it can be the difference between going far in the postseason and missing the playoffs all together. He would also threaten to get somebody like Alan Ball to take over for Hamlin or maybe Orlando Scandrick. Parcells is obviously no longer with the Cowboys, but it's tactics like this is why he has 2 Super Bowl rings and will go down as one of the all time great head coaches.


Part II Coming Up

Cowboys Release Ellis

The Cowboys have just released Greg Ellis today. Ellis was Dallas' first round pick in 1998 as the Cowboys took him in a controversial pick over Randy Moss. Moss was the type of pick that the Cowboys typically salivated over, but with the rash of off the field problems the Cowboys had at that time and Moss' off the field issues they went with Ellis to help bolster the pass rush and he was considered a 'high character' prospect. Since then, the two careers have been compared to each other by Cowboys fans.

When Moss did well, the Cowboys fans would curse the Ellis pick. When Moss would get in trouble, Cowboys fans would praise the Ellis pick. The first few years were extremely rough as Moss had one of the greatest rookie seasons in league history and Ellis struggled to find his way early on. But midway through their careers Ellis had become a solid, all around strongside defensive end while Moss had become a deep threat only malcontent. Oddly enough in recent years Moss has become more of a 'leader' on his teams (although I wouldn't consider him a leader, anybody can lead when your team is 16-0, leading when your team in 4-12 is a different story) while Ellis had become a malcontent with Dallas.

The problems really began when Ellis re-upped with Dallas in 2003 (IIRC). Dallas paid Ellis a very reasonable deal, but in 2004 the Seahawks paid a much high salary for Grant Wistrom and then the Eagles paid Jevon Kearse an inordinate amount of cash. For Ellis he looked at it like he should've been paid what Kearse and Wistrom were getting paid, especially because he was outperforming them. The Cowboys looked at it like they had just given Ellis a fair deal and it's not their fault that the Eagles and Seahawks overpaid for these two players.

This stuck with Ellis particularly in the 2005 season where the excuse was the Cowboys were going to a 3-4, but it was really that he didn't like the contract he had signed two years earlier. They did try him out at 3-4 DE, but he was just way too small to be a 2-gap DE. In '06 they moved Ellis to 3-4 OLB where he was more effective, but it was obvious he is a natural fit at Strongside DE in the 4-3 scheme.

All along starting in the '04 season Ellis had gripes with the Cowboys usually posed as either a problem with playing time, fear of being released, worries about scheme, etc. But again, I contend that the real problem is that he hated the second contract he had signed and hoped to be released while he was still young and get a better deal.

In some regards I feel sorry for Ellis because he was stuck playing for years under Mike Zimmer where pass rushers go to die. Then Dallas went to a 3-4 scheme which really didn't suit him and when he finally got released, he's an aging free agent. However, I think Dallas is better off without him and they treated him quite well over the years and had to take a lot of flak for picking him over Moss. My guess is that he might find his way to Mike Zimmer's defense in Cincinnati, but I wouldn't rule out the Eagles (they love depth on the D-Line) or the Redskins (they could use a strongside DE).




YAKUZA

YR's 2009 NFL Team Previews: YOUR Cleveland Browns

CLEVELAND BROWNS
YR'S 2008 PREDICTED RECORD: 6-10
ACTUAL 2008 RECORD: 4-12
2008 QBRD: -24.9 (30th)
Sack Differential: -7 (21st)
Turnover Margin: +5 (8th)
Team Efficiency DVOA: -21.6% (28th)

The Cleveland Browns came into 2007 with quite a bit of turmoil as both GM Phil Savage and Head Coach Romeo Crennel almost were gone from the organization. Both wound up staying, although not many were very high on the prospects of Crennel as a head coach. The 2007 season started off bad enough with a terrible preseason and then a 34-7 thumping to the rival Steelers.

But as the 2007 season progressed the Browns became very competitive. Then they actually became quite good. Then they started to be a team that opponents hated to face because their offense was so dynamic. Braylon Edwards had started to come in his own and was practically unstoppable. When he wasn't open, they usually had a big mismatch with Kellen Winslow II at tight end. Then they could hand it off to Jamal Lewis who rejuvenated his career. And they also had Josh Cribbs who was arguably the best returner in the league that season, even better than the more highly touted Devin Hester.

Come 2008 the Browns were thinking of themselves as a playoff bound team as they signed Donte Stallworth to help out with the passing game and added Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers to beef up the D-Line. But after an 0-3 start with a combined score of 22-66, the Browns seemed like the same old Browns again.

During the end of '07 there were concerns about Derrick Andersen's play as it had dipped in the last month or so of the season. And after a tough start those concerns were somewhat confirmed. He wound up having a great game in week 4 against the defending Super Bowl champion Giants, but could not regain that form.

The Browns wound up putting Brady Quinn at QB, but that didn't really catch on and then he got hurt. The defense never really improved and the Donte Stallworth signing unfortunately became a disaster. By the end of the year the Browns had been shutout in the last 2 games of the season and averaged 5 points in the last six games.

The Browns promptly fired Crennel and hired former Jets head coach and New England assistant Eric Mangini. Some parts of me think that Mangini is a pretty good coach, but Belichick assistants have not had much luck elsewhere in the league. I think the Browns really regret firing Belichick from years ago and that's part of the reason why they hired two of his former assistants. Mangini will be more aggressive on defense than the conservative Crennel. Unfortunately they have a lot of issues on offense.

OFFENSE

Team Off. DVOA Rnk: 30th
Team Pass DVOA Rnk: 32nd
Team Rush DVOA Rnk: 20th

Projected Starters:

QB: Brady Quinn/Derek Andersen
RB: Jamal Lewis
FB: Lawrence Vickers
WR: Braylon Edwards
WR: Josh Cribbs
TE: Steve Heiden
LT: Joe Thomas (7th)
LG: Eric Steinbach (2nd)
C: Alex Mack (rookie) (Fraley - 11th)
RG: Pork Chop Womack/Rex Hadnot (Hadnot - 4th)
RT: John St. Claire (Shaffer - 16th)

Overall O-Line Statistical Ranking: 3rd





I think the key for the Browns is to get Braylon Edwards back on track. He probably compares most closely to a young Terrell Owens. Somewhat questionable hands, but he's so big, tall and fast that he can be effective on all different depth pass patterns (short, intermediate, deep) and is the type that if he gets going early it can change the complexion of the game because D-Coordinators will change up their gameplan just to defend him. With Cribbs getting more WR playing time, the problem is that it usually takes away from their return skills a bit because it is so taxing to be a starter and a full time special teams player. They did draft Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie, both of whom have the possibility of being solid #2 WR's. Neither are really burners, but both have pretty solid and polished skills. Massaquoi is probably a bit more athletic, but tends to drop too many passes. Veteran David Patten can help stretch the defense a bit. I'm a tad surprised they let KWII go. But I think Mangini thought he was an overrated headache. Heiden and Robert Royal are there for blocking. Mangini, like his mentor Belichick, is big into tight ends. So I expect in another year or two they'll draft a pass receiving tight end.

Of course, they need a Quarterback to get them the ball. I'm not a fan of Derek Andersen, but the scouts and coaches seem to love him. He does have pretty good mechanics, good arm strength and is a big guy (6'6" tall), but I think he's pretty slow into the pocket and is too inaccurate for my tastes. Quinn seems much more mobile and has a stronger arm (IMO), but does suffer from accuracy problems.

The good news is the O-Line is pretty solid. They got rid of Kevin Shaffer, but he was getting paid way too much money for his services. So they got in a cheaper John St. Clair, although Shaffer is much better IMO. Left side of the O-Line is very strong with Joe Thomas already being one of the league's best left tackles and Steinbach being one of the league's best left guards. They didn't like Fraley, and I'm not a big fan either. So they wound up drafting Alex Mack who I loved watching at Cal. Hadnot did well statistically last year and I'm surprised they want to pass him up for the underachieving Pork Chop Womack.

DEFENSE

Defensive DVOA Rnk: 17th

Pass Def DVOA Rnk: 17th

Run Def DVOA Rnk: 22nd

LDE: Corey Williams

NT: Shaun Rogers

RDE: Kenyon Coleman

ROLB: Kamerion Wimbley

ILB: Eric Barton

ILB: D'Qwell Jackson

LOLB: David Bowens

CB: Eric Wright

CB: Brandon McDonald

SS: Brodney Pool

FS: Mike Adams/Abram Elam

The Browns will continue to use a 3-4 scheme under Mangini, although Mangini will be more aggressive and willing to blitz more to get to the QB than the Browns had under Crennel. Still a 2-gap scheme and I'm willing to bet that the Browns will be aggressive in finding a pass rusher at the OLB spot either in the draft or free agency next season.

The D-Line should be pretty steady and if Shaun Rogers, who has had issues in the past with the Mangini hiring, can be motivated and Corey Williams can adjust and play up to his potential, I like the starting D-Line prospects. Kenyon Coleman is a steady hand who knows the 3-4 and Mangini's scheme.

After a promising rookie season, Kamerion Wimbley has been a big disappointment. He lacks pass rushing moves and doesn't have the athleticism to get by with that. Crennel's scheme didn't confuse offenses and relied on the pass rushers to use their skills to get to the QB while they would try to confuse the QB with different coverages. This worked great in New England where there was a Willie McGinest with plenty of gas in the tank and a Mike Vrabel who just has a knack for getting to the QB. D'Qwell Jackson is pretty steady at ILB and has potential to be a Pro Bowler so day. Eric Barton is a veteran who knows the Mangini scheme.

Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald show some promise, but the lack of a pass rush has given them rough times. Wright is the athlete of the two with more upside, McDonald is a little bit better from a technical standpoint. Brodney Pool is an okay safety and they'll either have Mike Adams or Abram Elam at the other safety spot. Elam comes over to Cleveland from the Jets. He knows the Mangini scheme and is a very good special teams player.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Phil Dawson
P: Dave Zastudil (5th)
KR & PR: Joshua Cribbs

Phil Dawson is one of the better kickers in the league. Not only is he a good field goal guy, but he's usually very good on kickoffs and is an effective onside kicker as well. I've never been a big Dave Zastudil fan, but he can do kickoffs and is a good placeholder. He did have a terrific year last season.

Josh Cribbs is a superb punt returner. After '07 I laughed at some people who voted Cribbs as the All Pro returner, but when I looked at it further I wound up thinking they were absolutely right. Hester's kickoff returns were somewhat mediocre and made his due with the punt returns. Cribbs was excellent at both.

The problem is that Cribbs was injured last year and they tried to get him more time as a full time receiver and his returns suffered.

OUTLOOK

This screams a 'rebuilding year' for the Browns as they need to figure out who they are going to put at QB, whether or not they want to keep Braylon Edwards around, and figure out what personnel they want to keep around to rebuild their defense.

Making the playoffs is unlikely IMO because they have the Steelers and Ravens in their division. The Ravens could be had with the defense aging, the D-Coordinator now gone, and a still somewhat unproven Joe Flacco at Quarterback. But I'm not even sure the Browns are better than the Bengals who have a better QB in Carson Palmer. So don't expect too much in Cleveland this season.

YR'S PREDICTED 2009 RECORD: 5-11

Up Next, The Seattle Seahawks

YR's 2009 NFL Team Previews: YOUR St. Louis Rams

ST. LOUIS RAMS
YR'S PREDICTED 2008 RECORD: 6-10
ACTUAL 2008 RECORD: 2-14
QBRD: -25.6 (31st)
SACK DIFFERENTIAL: -15 (27th)
TURNOVER MARGIN: -5 (23rd)
TEAM EFFICIENCY DVOA: -35.0% (32nd)

The trademark Rams teams that featured high powered, pass oriented offenses lasted the organization roughly ten years with 2 trips to the Super Bowl and one Lombardi Trophy. But after years of disappointment under one of the architects of the system, Mike Martz, and the inability of his successor, Scott Linehan, to keep the calling card alive, the Rams looked in a new direction towards defense and hired former Giants D-Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

For years the Rams were thought as being one of the softest teams in the league and a bit careless. Their defense was more built on creating turnovers than stopping teams while the offense could build big leads. But the lackluster defensive performances and opposing defenses adjusting to 'The Greatest Show on Turf' called for the organization to make some wholesale changes to personnel and overall football philosophy.

Spagnuolo comes from the Eagles organization as a Defensive Assistant under Jim Johnson, arguably the best D-Coordinator in the league. He was then promoted to D-Coordinator with the Giants where he took Johnson's aggressive blitz schemes to heart. The G-Men actually did not perform wonders statistically on defense in Spagnuolo's first season (14th in DVOA), but they led the league in sacks and were more or less a great pass rushing team that was decent stopping the run and pretty much so-so on everything else. However, the Giants went on to have a great playoff run that was capped off by a brilliant performance against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

In 2008 the defense started out the first season dominating, but started to falter in the second half and was not getting the pass rush they once were. They did finish 8th in DVOA and by then Spagnuolo had already established himself as one of the most promising coaching prospects in the league.

DEFENSE

Team Off DVOA Rnk: 32nd
Team Run DVOA Rnk: 29th
Team Pass DVOA Rnk: 31st

Projected Starters:

QB: Marc Bulger
RB: Steven Jackson
FB: Mike Karney
WR: Donnie Avery
WR: Keenan Burton
TE: Randy McMichael/Joe Klopfenstein
LT: Jason Smith (rookie) (Pace in '08 - 14th)
LG: Jacob Bell (24th)
C: Jason Brown (4th - in Baltimore)
RG: Richie Incognito (24th)
RT: Alex Barron (27th)

Total O-Line Statistical Ranking: 27th


The old offensive schemes in St. Louis mostly consisted of deep pass patterns with a lot of 5 and 7 step drops. Under Martz they laxed on pass protection in order to get more pass receivers down field. Linehan was more protective of the QB, but still liked to get the ball downfield. With Spagnuolo in charge, expect the Rams to go to more of a West Coast Offense with shorter drop backs and pass patterns.

The good news is I think Marc Bulger can adjust to the new scheme. He's a vet, knows NFL playbooks and probably should know the WCO to some degree. More importantly, he has the release and footwork to be an effective WCO Quarterback. In fact, given the beatings he's suffered over the years this is probably a welcomed change for him. I tend to think I overrate Bulger, but when he's on he's really, really good because he can throw the rock like it's nobody's business. But health has been a big concern for him and throughout the years he's often played a bit shellshocked.

Steven Jackson is still a very good tailback. He runs well both inside and outside and is effective on catching passes out of the backfield. In fact, people often forget that back in 2006 he had over 1,500 yards rushing and 800 yards receiving. He's had some issues staying healthy, but second year man Brian Leonard ought to be able to relieve some of the workload for him. Mike Karney is a nice addition as he's a quality point of attack blocker.



Donnie Avery had a solid rookie campaign for the most part. He does remind me a lot of Torry Holt, a burner with some hands, and that's probably why they drafted him. They like Keenan Burton, but he's probably at least a couple more years away from being a threat. This is a pretty weak corp for the Rams and Joe Klopfenstein is pretty average at best at tight end. This leads me to believe that they'll lean even more on the running game in '09. Spagnuolo comes from the Philly system and they had a love-hate relationship with WR's there, so they probably want to see what their current corp of receivers have to offer and then go from there.

It's apparent that Spagnuolo really wanted to improve the Rams' O-Line which has struggled for quite some time. Obviously, 2nd overall pick Jason Smith is a big deal. He's replacing Orlando Pace who can still play, but at the price tag he's getting they decided to cut him. But the even bigger player to look out for is new center Jason Brown. Brown was one of the league's best centers with the Ravens and the Rams got him for $20 million guaranteed. Jacob Bell is an adequate vet. Richie Incognito has massive amounts of talent, and may be as pure of a drive blocker as any guard in the league. He's also better suited at center physically. The problem is he's a major hothead who collects a lot of penalties. The center is supposed to be the smart, level headed general of the O-Line and with that they put Incognito at guard. They'll want to replace Alex Barron someday as he's been a major disappointment. Another penalty making machine who also struggles with run blocking.

DEFENSE

Defensive DVOA Rnk: 30th
Pass Defense DVOA Rnk: 25th
Run Defense DVOA Rnk: 31st

Projected Starters:

RDE: Chris Long
DT: Adam Carriker
DT: Clifton Ryan/Dorrell Scott (rookie)
LDE: Leonard Little/Victor Adeyanju
ROLB: Pisa Tinoisamoa
MLB: Will Witherspoon/James Laurinaitis
LOLB: Quinton Culberson
CB: Tye Hill
CB: Ron Bartell
SS: James Butler
FS: OJ Atogwe

Spagnuolo won't have to change the scheme too much, it's still a 4-3 that is based more on a Cover 2 personnel. However, what Spagnuolo will likely due is add a lot more exotic looks, lots of different blitzes and zone blitzes and switching the zone coverages from Cover 1-4 to man-to-man.



I'm not as high on the Rams' D-Line prospects as most people are. I thought Chris Long was a tweener who is probably best suited to be a Mike Vrabel, do-it-all but go to 1 Pro Bowl-type in a 3-4 scheme. Instead they've got him at the weakside DE spot and I don't think he has a good enough first step to consistently beat LT's off the ball. Carriker came off as more of a 3-4 DE type and at 4-3 DT he can't fend off double teams. However, in Spagnuolo's scheme I think they can get freed up more and make some more plays. Leonard Little might get cut before the season starts. Clifton Ryan is more of a space eater, but watch out for Dorrell Scott who has some real ability.

I don't expect Laurinaitis to start, but he should get some playing time as Spagnuolo likes to rotate the LB's around a bit and send blitzes. Will Witherspoon is a solid MLB and can teach the Animal the ropes for a year or two. AJ Hawk and Bobby Carpenter both struggle with fending off blockers and Laurinaitis struggled a bit with that at Ohio State as well. Pisa Tinoisamoa has great cover skills and range and is probably the best LB of the group. Quinton Culberson is more or less a JAG.

Tye Hill has more talent, but can't stay healthy. Ron Bartell is actually a pretty solid cornerback and the Rams made it a priority to re-sign him. Bartell is the physical corner of the two while Hill is the speed and quickness guy. They brought over James Butler from the Giants as Spagnuolo is quite familiar with thim. OJ Atogwe has some good skills as well. If they can stay healthy and get a decent pass rush, this could be a very effective secondary.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Josh Brown
P: Donnie Jones (8th)
KR: Laurent Robinson
PR: Derek Stanley

Special Teams DVOA Rnk: 18th

A pretty decent special teams unit that struggled last year with coverage, but the other areas were solid. Josh Brown is one of the league's better kickers because he's got a pretty big leg, solid accuracy and is a good kickoff guy. Donnie Jones is a very solid punter who is more of a boomer than a hangtime guy.

The Rams traded for Laurent Robinson who shows some really nice flashes his rookie year but was banged up last season. Derek Stanley is an above average returner with kickoff and punt return capabilities.

OUTLOOK

I think we see a team that will have a definite change in direction and there's some potential hear for a playoff bound team as they play in a weak division, they should be able to sack the Quarterback and Bulger is at the very least a steady veteran Quarterback.

I'm a bit averse to calling them a possible playoff team because I cannot trust Bulger's health (and I'm not sure that I don't overrate him) and the switch to new offensive and defensive schemes may make for a tough adjustment.

YR'S PREDICTED 2009 RECORD: 6-10

Cowboys' Practice Facility Collapses

Just a quick update. The Cowboys' practice facility 'tent' collapsed when winds hit up to almost 70 mph. The facility 'tent' really is not a tent it's a steel structure that is supposed to hold up in the nastiest of storms. At least 4 were injured, including special teams coach Joe DeCamillis who had broken his back, Assistant Athletic Train Greg Gaither who broke his leg and Scouting Assistant Rich Behm who is sadly diagnosed with being paralyzed from the waist down, permanently.

I've experience 70 mph winds before as I played a college golf tournament in those winds. It is actually difficult to breathe in those winds and you can't wear a hat and my golf stand bag would not stand anymore. And for golf fans, to give a description of how the wind was on a par 4 I hit driver, 3-wood and then a knock down 7-iron into the wind, just short of the green. The very next day when there was no wind whatsoever on that hole I hit driver-sand wedge.

So 70 mph winds are pretty severe, but I never had a fear of a building structure falling down or broken glass, except for the tornado warnings that day (had a tornado developed). My guess is that there was some very faulty with the structure or the way it was put together. So we'll being hearing more about this. My thoughts and condolences go out to all of those who were injured and especially the DeCamillis, Gaither and Behm families.

YAKUZA

YR's NFL Team Previews: YOUR Kansas City Chiefs

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

YR'S PREDICTED 2008 RECORD: 3-13

ACTUAL 2008 RECORD: 2-14

QBRD: -13.6 (26th)

SACKS DIFFERENTIAL: -27 (31st)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +5 (10th)

DVOA: -29.6% (30th)

After a somewhat successful run under Dick Vermeil which featured the Chiefs with a high powered offense and a questionable defense, the team decided to head in another direction in hopes to gain success in the postseason.

So the Chiefs decided to hire Herm Edwards. Edwards likes a more conservative and smash mouth style of football and in the first season under Edwards the team made the playoffs and almost pulled out a win against the Colts, who then proceeded to win the Super Bowl, in the first round of the playoffs.

After that the Chiefs decided to go with Damon Huard at Quarterback and proceeded to have a 4-12 season, mired by ugly offensive football and a stingy defense. But then after a falling out with GM Carl Peterson, the Chiefs traded their best defensive player, Jared Allen, to the Vikings and the Chiefs defense was no longer stingy anymore. In fact, they finished the season with an NFL 16 game record low of 10 sacks in '08. Meanwhile, Allen had more sacks than the entire Chiefs team.

With this, Carl Peterson stepped down from GM duties with the team, but he probably would have been fired anyway. Peterson had great success early on with the team, but often clashed with players and coaches, particularly for personal reasons and the Allen trade probably would have been the final straw.

Somewhat surprisingly the Chiefs hired long time Patriots personnel man Scott Pioli to become in charge of operations. Pioli, the son-in-law of Bill Parcells, hired Todd Haley who had been a long time assistant under Parcells. They'll have a lot of work ahead of them, but if they learned anything from Parcells they may be able to turn this around quicker than most people think.

OFFENSE

OFFENSIVE DVOA: -6.3% (25th)

PASS DVOA RNK: 24th

RUN DVOA RNK: 22nd

QB: Matt Cassel

RB: Larry Johnson/Jamaal Charles

FB: Mike Cox

WR: Dwayne Bowe

WR: Bobby Engram/Mark Bradley

TE: Brad Cottam

LT: Branden Albert (9th)

LG: Brian Waters (4th)

C: Rudy Niswanger (26th)

RG: Mike Goff (Jones/Smith - 13th, Goff in San Diego - 10th)

RT: Damien Washington (McIntosh -24th)

Overall O-Line Statistical Ranking: 16th

Todd Haley will be taking over the offense. It's always difficult to pinpoint how aggressive a long time offensive assistant coach will be on offense once they become the head guy, but I think we'll see a similar system to what Haley worked under with Parcells.

Parcells likes to throw it deep and usually air it out a little in the first quarter, then steadily keep running the ball in order to win the time of possession battle, then set up some deep play action. Even though the Cardinals favored the pass last year with Haley, that was because they were so much better throwing the ball than running the ball. Yet, Haley still kept running the ball. Again, perhaps that was Ken Wisenhunt's insistence, so you never know. Haley did like to run some gadget plays, something that Parcells favored as well.

It's obvious that the Chiefs are trying to clear house to some degree and get players that Pioli and Haley want. This sent Tony Gonzalez to Atlanta and brought Matt Cassel as the franchise Quarterback. This could also mean the end of Larry Johnson soon.

If there's two players I would look out for it's Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. Johnson is great with the ball, but he's not very well liked and he's lousy at blitz pickup. Parcells disciples are usually very adamant about the tailbacks picking up the blitz. And with what they gave up to get Cassel, I don't think they'll dig Johnson missing a weakside blitz. Charles fits the type of player that Pioli loved in New England, a versatile player who is productive in different facets of the game. He averaged 5.3 yards a run last year and 10.1 yards a catch. Johnson can catch effectively as well, but he's more of a screen pass threat whereas Charles is more of a down the field receiving threat. I just think that Charles fits the type of player that Haley and Pioli would love and they are probably sick and tired of Johnson already and wouldn't mind unloading his contract.

Bowe is a great athlete, but still a bit raw. He had a great rookie year with basically nobody throwing him the ball. I like him here because while I have my opinions on Haley's maturity, he was a great WR coach who usually did well with the raw, but talented receivers. If Bowe will listen to him and not put up any fuss, Haley will likely take him in and turn him into one of the better receivers in the league.

I really didn't like the Matt Cassel trade though. He's got a very strong arm and can run, but he's not much in the way of reading defenses. NFL's Greg Cosell did some analysis on Cassel and basically came away with him being awful under center and being productive out of the shotgun. That's usually a sign of somebody struggling to read where the pressure is coming from which is what Cassel tended to struggle with when playing against teams that were decent at blitzing. The big thing though was he got to play with the best the WR combo in the league (Moss and Welker) so he could throw it deep to Moss who always draws 2 defenders or throw it short to Welker who nobody can really keep up with on the short and intermediate routes. Then he has Ben Watson who isn't exactly All-World, but he's just big enough and fast enough to cause mismatches. Trying to put my Coastal Carolina University alum bias aside, I really thought they had something with Tyler Thigpen who struggled badly early on, but was playing very well down the stretch with an 85 QB rating in his last 10 games.

I'm guessing Bobby Engram will be the other starter opposite of Bowe. He's more or less a short to intermediate pass pattern guy. Mark Bradley has a lot of athleticism, but has never been healthy while in the league. They like Brad Cottam, but knowing Pioli they'll keep adding tight ends to the roster over the next few years. Pioli likes Tight Ends on the roster because of their versatility, they help the QB and they usually are pretty solid on special teams.

The O-Line played better than expected last year, even with former great center Casey Weigmann going to the the rival Broncos. Branden Albert was considered a question mark when it came to playing left tackle and had a really nice season. They signed Mike Goff, a technician who had a solid career at San Diego. Right tackle may be concern as well as center. Brian Waters is still excellent but has wanted out of Kansas City already due to some issues with Haley.

The key with this offense is if they can find a new receiving threat with Gonzalez gone and get the running game going with Cassel likely to be more effective running out of the shotgun. The Cardinals used a lot of shotgun last year and still found ways to give the running game a heartbeat, even if it was a weak one. If the Chiefs want to do that, they'll probably have to find some production from somebody else than Dwayne Bowe.

DEFENSE

Defense DVOA Rnk: 28th
Run Defense DVOA Rnk: 28th
Pass Defense DVOA Rnk: 28th

Projected Starters:

LDE: Tyson Jackson (rookie)
NT: Tank Tyler
RDE: Glenn Dorsey
ROLB: Mike Vrabel
ILB: Demorrio Williams
ILB: Zach Thomas
LOLB: Tamba Hali
CB: Brandon Carr
CB: Brandon Flowers
SS: Bernard Pollard/DeJuan Morgan
FS: Jarrad Page

Former GM Carl Peterson's 'Waterloo' probably came when he traded Jared Allen to the Vikings. It's usually not advisable to give up some big picks for a player in a trade unless the player is a quality Quarterback (why even though I don't like the Cassel trade, it's not insane either). But if you are a 4-3 defense and you can come across a great defensive end in his prime who also defends the run well, it's a smart move because you could spend 10 draft picks on DE's that never pan out nearly as well. The Vikings were smart enough to take the trade and never look back while the Chiefs wound up with the lowest 16 game season total sack total in league history (10 team sacks).

With Pioli and Haley in charge, they'll be trying to go to a 3-4 scheme. They hired former Cardinals D-Coordinator Clancy Penderghast to run the defense. Penderghast ran a variety of schemes in Arizona, everything from a 4-3, 3-4, 46, 3-3-5, and even a 5-2. Although before Wisenhunt came along they favored the 4-3 and then mostly sticked with some type of 3-4 scheme with Wisenhunt. Penderghast got a lot of flak for his defenses in Arizona, but the guy is pretty creative.



Former LSU teammates Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey will be playing together once again. They really liked Jackson because he reminded them a bit of Richard Seymour. Same type of size although I think Seymour is a bit nastier (see 'dirtier player') and stronger while Jackson is more mobile. But they both can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DT and 4-3 DE which is versatility that Pioli loves. Dorsey really isn't meant for a 2 gap responsibility in a 3-4 so I wonder how well he'll do here. They may move to more of a Wade Phillips-ish 3-4 1 gap scheme to make him more comfortable. Dorsey is a talent and a player who can motivate the troops, so it may be worth it. Tank Tyler has been a decent but a bit disappointing player as a Chief.

I'm guessing Vrabel will play outside linebacker. He's played a bit of inside backer for the Pats in recent years, but the Chiefs need a pass rush. Vrabel is more of a *skilled* pass rusher than a *talented* pass rusher. He won't blow anybody off the line like a Michael Strahan or have a first step that nobody can catch up to like DeMarcus Ware. But he's a master at disguising his blitzes and using proper leverage to get the advantage. Tamba Hali is decent, but has a ceiling with his potential. He usually does play the run pretty well.

I'm guessing Demorrio Williams will play on the inside. They are pretty small up the middle with Williams and Zach Thomas. Thomas didn't get a lot of praise in Dallas' 3-4 last year but I thought he was pretty decent and considering it's a new system I didn't think it was all that bad. Early on he struggled a bit, but the Dallas D-Line was struggling somewhat. He's still an incredibly smart player.

I thought Brandon Flowers was the Chiefs biggest brightspot on defense in 2008. He wasn't exactly fast enough to have scouts drooling and at 5'9" tall it didn't help matters much. But he's quick and extremely tough and can make some plays. Reminds me of a young Antoine Winfield. Brandon Carr was solid as well, although he seemed to get beat on more players. That being said, at 10 sacks last year the play of these rookie corners has to be pretty promising for the Chiefs.

They may make DeJuan Morgan a starter. If not, they may try and get him on the field in dime packages. Neither safety is something to write home about, but then again at 10 sacks I cannot imagine shutting down passing games.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Connor Barth/Ryan Succop
P: Dustin Colquitt (7th)
KR/PR: Kevin Robinson

Special Teams DVOA Rnk: 30th

Succop was this year's 'Mr. Irrelevant' in the draft, but actually may have a nice career in the league. Very adequate leg strength, solid accuracy, etc. Will need to work on kickoffs and getting a higher trajectory. Colquitt is one of the league's best punters. He can boom 'em when he needs to, but he's more of a hangtime punter and with his left footed kicks it tends to put a rotation on the ball that returners don't like. He's excellent at downing punts inside the 5 yard line and is a great placeholder. Robinson is a middle of the pack returner.

OUTLOOK

There's no doubt in my mind that as a *coach*, Todd Haley is very good. As I've stated before, the problem I had with Haley is that his maturity and the way he deals with some players is something that usually doesn't last long in this league. There's a reason why he was an assistant for Parcells for years and was never anything higher than the WR coach despite being excellent at improving WR's. He simply didn't have the tempermant that Parcells wanted for the guy calling the plays, IMO.

And it happened in Arizona as well with his arguments with players such as Edgerrin James and Anquan Boldin. And it's already happening in Kansas City and he's yet to even coach a game.

If I were a Chiefs fan, I'd be a bit concerned when I hear Haley say things like he would take Marty Booker over Terrell Owens. That's an obvious sign that he let's things get personal over making sound football decisions.

That being said, this may be about as good of a situation for Haley as it gets. Pioli likes him and the Chiefs are not expected to do much right away. And if a player doesn't like it, they'll just get rid of him and get a player that they want because angry players who just came off a 2-14 season don't have a leg to stand on.

It wouldn't exactly shock me to see the Chiefs have success in '09 and even make the playoffs. Perhaps Cassel is better than I think and they do play in a very weak division. But I think they have too many holes on offense and still have a questionable defense and not enough on special teams to make up for it.

YR'S PREDICTED 2009 RECORD: 6-10

Up Next, the St. Louis Rams

YR's 2009 NFL Team Previews: YOUR Detroit Lions

DETROIT LIONS
YR's Predicted 2008 Record: 8-8
Actual 2008 Record: 0-16
QBRD: -39.6 (32nd)
Turnover Margin: -9 (28th)
DVOA: -47.3% (32nd)
Sacks Differential: -22 (29th)


In the 2006 season the Lions thought that they had figured out part of the problem with their team. Matt Millen had gone after glitzy players with coaching staffs that were either thought to be inept and/or soft on player discipline. So Millen hired the hard nosed Rod Marinelli to become the new head coach to toughen up the players and the Lions went 3-13 in his first season.

But in 2007 the Lions got off to a great start and were 6-2 after the 9th week of the season, just coming off an impressive 44-7 victory over the Denver Broncos. Earlier in the season, starting Quarterback Jon Kitna promised the Lions would make the playoffs and while it was scoffed at first, Kitna appeared to be a genius at his prediction. Furthermore, Kitna was getting hammered each game in Mike Martz's 7 step drop passing scheme and somehow kept coming back which just endeared him to Lions fans and his teammates even more.

Unfortunately it all fell apart as the Lions finished the season 1-7, including a painful loss at home against the Cowboys where they had a sizeable lead and the Cowboys' offense revolved around throwing to Jason Witten who had 15 receptions in that game.

Then the Millen 'brain trust' decided that Martz was the problem and that the Lions needed to be a conservative smash mouth team. But what happened was the Lions couldn't run the ball because they didn't have the offensive personnel for it and they couldn't play defense. So you had a team trying to play smash mouth football when they simply were not designed to play that style.

The season started out as terrible as it could as the Lions were down in their first two games 21-0 (against Atlanta and Green Bay). In fact, rookie Matt Ryan's first NFL pass was for a 62 yard TD pass.

Midway through the season the Lions finally realized the real issue with their team and fired Matt Millen. Millen was effectively replaced by Martin Mayhew. Marinelli was fired and was more or less accepted as a good positional coach who was way over his head as a head coach. They then hired Tennessee Titans Defensive Coordinator, Jim Schwartz, a bright mind and well respected coordinator who almost got hired by some teams last year to become the new head coach.

Schwartz learned from one of the league's best in Jeff Fisher and the Titans organization is very big into hard nosed football and running the ball. Furthermore, Schwartz is a big fan of statistics in football, particularly the FootballOutsiders.com Web site and using Economics to make personnel decisions.

While Schwartz looks like a promising head coach, he will have an almost insurmountable amount of work to do.

OFFENSE

OFFENSE DVOA: -15.3% (28th)
PASS DVOA Rank: 28th
RUSH DVOA Rank: 30th

Projected Starters

QB: Daunte Culpepper
RB: Kevin Smith
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: Bryant Johnson
TE: Brandon Pettigrew (Rookie)
LT: Jeff Backus (24th)
LG: Damion Cook/Manny Ramirez (Mulitalo in 2008 - 29th)
C: Dominic Raiola (and McCollum - 32nd)
RG: Stephen Peterman (21st)
RT: Gosder Cherilus (and Foster - 15th)

Overall 2008 O-Line Ranking: 32nd




This offense and pretty much the organization will be geared towards getting Matthew Stafford prepared to hopefully become the 'franchise Quarterback' that the Lions have always wanted.

I watched quite a bit of Stafford in college and he does have an extremely strong arm and for the most part is pretty accurate. Part of where he struggle in college was with his footwork, but by his junior year he shed a lot of weight and not only did his footwork improve, but he became much more elusive as well. The only real knock against him in his junior year is that he struggled at times with his decision making and was too impulsive at times. That being said, the same could be said for many college QB's that went on to have successful NFL careers, even Hall of Famers. Two current examples are Ben Roethlisberger and Donovan McNabb, both of whom were pretty much one-read QB's even in their rookie seasons and now are extremely successful and probably HOF'ers.

I actually think the Lions are off to a *decent* start at preparing Stafford properly to be ready for 2010. They've got Daunte Culpepper to play for them for at least 1 more year so Stafford can sit on the bench and learn. They've got a top flight WR in Calvin Johnson, a couple of solid looking O-Linemen and what looks like a legit rookie Tight End as well as Kevin Smith at tailback. Furthermore, there really isn't any expectation to win more than 3 games so there's no rush to put Stafford in at QB. They can put him in some spot situations to give him a feel of the speed of the game, but I greatly advise against them giving him too much playing time unless he greatly exceeds expectations. And remember, for every Roethlisberger, Ryan and Flacco, there are the Kyle Boller's, Rick Mirer's and Quincy Carter's of the world.

The one issue the Lions need to greatly resolve on offense is the left side of the O-Line. Jeff Backus hasn't played well in a long time and Edwin Mulitalo was dreadful last year and his replacements look to be either Damion Cook or Manny Ramirez, who at best are unproven. Dominic Raiola hasn't been a very good center either. They really should have taken a look at a center in this draft given how many good centers were available in this class. The left side is pretty crucial for a right handed NFL QB and that's another reason why I wouldn't be too keen on giving Stafford too much playing time this season.

I liked what I saw out of tailback Kevin Smith '08. He got some flak for not being fast enough and running too high in college. I think he does run a little high which would concern me for durability issues, but he's a tough, smart runner and you can keep those guys around if you split their carries properly.

Bryant Johnson is a so-so receiver and is really meant to be a #3 WR in this league. Calvin Johnson put up great stats last year, but a lot of them came when the game was a bit out of reach. It's not to say he's a 'garbage time player' because the Lions were so bad that it would probably be difficult for any WR to make big plays right away in games. But it is something to watch out for. My only knock on him is that he probably doesn't *quite* get the seperation that I like to see. But he's so tall, big and has great hands that he's a nightmare for DB's to try and cover and then tackle in the open field. I like the Pettigrew pick because I think a good tight end can greatly improve a QB right away and give them the confidence they need early on. With today's college game becoming more spread option-ish, the prototype NFL tight end is becoming more extinct and Pettigrew is one of the last of a dying breed.

I thought all things considered Gosder Cherlius looked pretty decent last year. Although part of the problem is that he's only meant for the right tackle spot and they really need a left tackle for the future. The Lions also like Stephen Peterman, moderately athletic guard who is a good technician. I expect the Lions to run more to the right than to the left.

The Lions new O-Coordinator is Scott Linehan. Linehan is a bit of an enigma. He's more from the Mike Martz type of offensive gameplan in that he's under the 'Ernie Zampese' offensive tree, but he wants to protect the ball and the QB. And at times he can be a brilliant game planner, but then he'll make some real questionable playcalls, particularly in crucial situations. He also has a love for running out of the shotgun when in the red zone. However, if Schwartz has a desire to run the ball like the Titans did when he was there, he could provide a nice 'checks and balance' for the sometimes pass happy Linehan.



DEFENSE

Defensive DVOA: 33.3% (32nd)
Pass Def DVOA Rnk: 32nd
Run Def DVOA Rnk: 32nd

Projected Starters

RDE: DeWayne White
DT: Grady Jackson/Sammie Lee Hill (rookie)
DT: Chuck Darby
LDE: Jared Devries
ROLB: Ernie Sims
MLB: Jordon Dizon
LOLB: Julian Peterson
CB: Anthony Henry
CB: Phillip Buchanon
Nickel CB: Dexter Wynn
SS: Daniel Bullocks
FS: Louis Delmas (rookie)



Obviously, when you rank last in pass defense and run defense DVOA, your defense is atrocious. The biggest problem with the Lions last season is that they only had one player who could tackle at all, outside linebacker Ernie Sims. Then their D-Line wasn't that great and letting Shaun Rogers go was probably a huge mistake. And they also didn't have very good corners and some so-so safeties.

Long time D-Coordinator Gunther Cunningham will take over the defense which makes sense because Cunningham is big into blitzing and attacking in the 4-3 scheme which is what the Titans did when Schwartz was there. I'm actually not the biggest Cunningham fan because he tends to be a bit too predictable with his blitzing, but overall he's a solid coach who will teach tackling and hard nose football.

The Lions traded DT Corey Redding in order to get Julian Peterson. Peterson has been phenomenal in Seattle the past two seasons and while he's getting up there in age, he's an incredibly dynamic linebacker because he's excellent in coverage, can play the run pretty well and is a phenomenal blitzer. I actually like this move for the Lions because they can probably get about 2-3 seasons out of Peterson who should be able to make a bigger impact in that time than Corey Redding (another player I liked) could at the DT position. Opposite of Peterson will be Ernie Sims who is downright excellent. He's not the greatest blitzer, but he's great against the run and in coverage. Jordon Dizon is more of a cover guy, but is very unproven. They'll be running the LB's north and south...lots of blitzes, lots of deep coverage and they should have some guys to do it. But they'll need the D-Line to keep blockers off them.

I don't expect a lot of sacks from the Lions as Jared DeVries is a run stopper and DeWayne White is an average pass rush threat. Grady Jackson can still stop the run, but is only a 2-down player and Chuck Darby is solid, but unspectacular. I think the key for the Lions this year is to get these guys to protect the LB's and let the LB's make a lot of plays. Much like a 3-4 two gap scheme, but it's a 4-3 scheme.

Anthony Henry is a puzzling cornerback whom they got in a trade with the Cowboys for Jon Kitna. They really didn't need Kitna anymore, so I can see why they traded him. Henry is a physical corner with good ball skills, but plays a lot of cushion and relies on his smarts in order to stop WR's. Last year he was terrible in the first half of the season and then really came around. He was a bit up and down in Dallas, but mostly good and then he'd get banged up and injured. The good thing about somebody like Henry is that he can probably play corner for another year or two and then move to free safety or nickel/dime packages afterward if they really want him around. Phillip Buchanon has never been the same since he got injured in his rookie season, but he's somewhat serviceable. Dexter Wynn is a serviceable nickle corner.

Daniel Bullocks and Gerald Alexander may fight out each other for one safety spot as I think rookie Louis Delmas will have the other starting safety spot. Delmas is more of a cover safety who is a good wrap up tackler. He's not going to knock people's heads off like Jack Tatum, but he should do a solid job. Reminds me a bit of Jacksonville's Reggie Nelson. Bullocks and Alexander are decent.

Overall, I think the improvement on the defense will have to come from the D-Line and allowing the LB's to make plays and hopefully Henry can stay healthy and hasn't totally ran out of gas and that Delmas is as good as advertised.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Jason Hanson (YR 2008 All-Pro Team)
P: Nick Harris (19th)
KR: Aveion Cason
PR: Adam Jennings/Derrick Williams

Special Teams DVOA: 14th

Jason Hanson is still one of the best kickers in the league and made my All Pro team. He's actually improved his kickoffs over the years to help go along with his great placekicking. Nick Harris is a decent punter, but a great placeholder. Aveion Cason will probably get you about 23-25 yards a kickoff and can play some 3rd down tailback for you. Adam Jennings isn't much as a punt returner and may not make the team. So watch out for rookie Derrick Williams to take that over.

OUTLOOK

I doubt anybody is expecting much from a team that amazingly went 0-16 last season and is 1-23 in their last 24 games. However, I think the Lions and their fans have to feel good to get the Matt Millen era off their back and I think Schwartz can potentially be a really good coach.

The defense is what really made this a winless team last year and if they can stay healthy on defense they should be much better, although not great. I think if they can get that, get some production from Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith and Brandon Pettigrew and let Stafford learn it would be a successful year on some level.

YR'S PREDICTED 2009 RECORD: 3-13




Up Next, The Kansas City Chiefs